
It's actually very strange: The Shanghai Composite has been one of the worst performers all year, and yet it was this week that China fears really exploded into the consciousness of the market.
You could see it in the extreme behavior of the market: Copper got crushed. Chinese credit default swaps widened dramatically. Tertiary China "plays" like Tiffany's and Sotheby's, both of which have been minting a fortune selling to the growing ranks of rich Chinese got destroyed.
What caused the mass flipout? A slew things: Some weak economic data., end-of-the-quarter panic (investors dumping losers), and a big, negative report on China from BofA/ML.
What makes the shift in mentality particularly important is that China has been assumed to be one of the stable pillars of global growth, and in a sense (because people are so worried about debt in the US and Europe), and even safer play (that goes for many emerging markets, really).
So this shift should have some pretty big implications, especially if the data ultimately bears out the notion that there's a real slowdown coming.
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GDP expectations are tanking.
Nearly 60% of respondents to a global poll conducted by Bloomberg foresaw growth to slow to less than 5% by 2016, with 12% of respondents thinking this slowdown will occur in the next year. 47% of respondents thought this slowdown will occur within the next two years.
That's a sharp change from the 10% annual growth China has seen since 1979, and a steep drop from the 9.5% growth it saw in Q2 this year.
This led World Bank President Robert Zoellick to remark, “China’s economic growth engine needs a tune up,” at a press conference earlier this month. “It’s hard for me to see that a continued reliance on export-led and investment-led growth will work for China over the next 10 years.”
Source: Bloomberg
Chinese PMI also fell this month.
HSBC's preliminary China PMI fell from 49.9 to 49.4 from August to September, suggesting a big drop-off in Chinese growth. This was also a major concern cited in a Goldman desk note circulated this morning.
Chinese stock markets have fallen off since April, with drastic losses in the last 5 years.
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